Schneier on Security: Homeland Security Cost-Benefit Analysis.
A very worthwhile read – basically:
The premises:
- The number of potential terrorist targets is essentially infinite.
- The probability that any individual target will be attacked is essentially zero.
- If one potential target happens to enjoy a degree of protection, the agile terrorist usually can readily move on to another one.
- Most targets are “vulnerable” in that it is not very difficult to damage them, but invulnerable in that they can be rebuilt in fairly short order and at tolerable expense.
- It is essentially impossible to make a very wide variety of potential terrorist targets invulnerable except by completely closing them down.
The policy implications:
- Any protective policy should be compared to a “null case”: do nothing, and use the money saved to rebuild and to compensate any victims.
- Abandon any effort to imagine a terrorist target list.
- Consider negative effects of protection measures: not only direct cost, but inconvenience, enhancement of fear, negative economic impacts, reduction of liberties.
- Consider the opportunity costs, the tradeoffs, of protection measures.
There’s nothing new here – this is all common sense stuff, really. This paper just backs it up with research and evidence. Now, if we could just get our leaders to ACT on it, instead of their current tactic of fear-mongering and ass-covering, we’d all be a lot better off.
